BloombergNEF Raises Data Center Power Forecast 36% to 106 GW by 2035
TL;DR
BloombergNEF's December 2025 forecast projects U.S. data center power demand will reach 106 GW by 2035, a 36% increase from the 78 GW projection published just seven months earlier. The revision reflects both the surge in data center pipeline projects and the unprecedented scale of new facilities, with nearly a quarter of new projects exceeding 500 MW. For grid operators, the forecast signals potential reliability challenges as data center load growth outpaces new generation capacity in key regions like PJM and ERCOT.
What Happened
BloombergNEF released its updated data center power demand forecast on December 1, 2025, projecting U.S. data centers will draw 106 GW by 2035—up sharply from the 40 GW in operation today.
The 36% upward revision from BNEF's April 2025 forecast came despite ongoing questions about an AI bubble. BNEF titled its report "What AI Bubble?" in direct response to skeptics.
Two factors drove the revision:
Project Pipeline Expansion: BNEF added nearly 150 new data center projects to its tracker over the past year.
Facility Scale: Nearly a quarter of new projects exceed 500 MW capacity, more than double last year's share. The average new facility will draw over 100 MW, with some exceeding 1 GW.
Why It Matters
The forecast revision signals accelerating demand that grid operators may struggle to accommodate.
Regional Strain: BNEF predicts PJM alone could add 31 GW of data center load over the next five years—about 3 GW more than expected capacity additions from new generation. In ERCOT, reserve margins could fall into risky territory after 2028.
Share of Total Demand: By 2035, data centers will account for 8.6% of all U.S. electricity demand, more than double their 3.5% share today.
Development Timeline Pressure: BNEF estimates data center development takes about seven years from initial steps to full operation—4.8 years pre-construction and 2.4 years for construction. Projects entering the queue now target 2030-2032 operation.
Consumer Impact: Bloomberg analysis shows AI data centers are driving up power bills for residential and commercial customers in regions with heavy data center concentration.
Technical Details
Forecast Comparison: April vs December 2025
| Metric | April 2025 | December 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 U.S. Demand | — | 21% higher than April | +21% |
| 2035 U.S. Demand | 78 GW | 106 GW | +36% |
| Data Center Share of U.S. Power | — | 8.6% by 2035 | — |
Energy Consumption Growth
| Metric | 2024 | 2035 | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Power Demand | 35 GW | 106 GW | +203% |
| Average Hourly Consumption | 16 GWh | 49 GWh | +206% |
Actual energy consumption growth outpaces capacity growth as facilities run at higher utilization rates.
How BNEF Compares to Other Forecasts
| Source | 2030 Projection | 2035 Projection | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| BloombergNEF | +21% vs April | 106 GW | December 2025 |
| S&P Global | 134.4 GW | — | U.S. data centers |
| DOE | 50 GW additional | — | Data center portion only |
| Goldman Sachs | 122 GW global | — | +165% vs 2023 |
| IEA | 945 TWh global | 1,700 TWh (high case) | Consumption, not capacity |
| Grid Strategies | 65 GW additional | — | "Utility forecasts overstated" |
BNEF notes its 106 GW projection remains relatively conservative compared to estimates from Goldman Sachs, BCG, and McKinsey.
Project Size Distribution Shift
| Size Category | 2024 Share | 2025 New Projects |
|---|---|---|
| <50 MW | 90% | Declining |
| 100+ MW | — | Average new facility |
| 500+ MW | <12% | ~25% |
| 1+ GW | Rare | Multiple projects |
The shift toward mega-scale facilities concentrates power demand in fewer locations, intensifying local grid strain.
Regional Grid Pressure Points
| Region | Data Center Load by 2030 | New Generation Expected | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| PJM | 31 GW | 28.7 GW | -2.3 GW |
| ERCOT | — | — | Reserve margins "risky" post-2028 |
What's Next
The forecast revision arrives as grid operators grapple with competing pressures: accommodating AI-driven load growth without undermining reliability or driving up power costs.
Key uncertainties remain:
Pipeline Conversion: How much of today's pipeline will actually come online? The upward revision came primarily from projects not yet under construction that entered the queue early to secure power.
Speculative Requests: Some experts believe utilities face "speculative" interconnection requests from developers submitting applications for early-phase projects unlikely to complete, filing multiple requests for the same facility, or requesting capacity in multiple utility territories.
Renewable Integration: BNEF separately projects power generation from renewables will jump 84% over five years as data center demand surges, but whether supply can match demand growth remains uncertain.
Global projections show data centers consuming 1,200 TWh by 2035 and 3,700 TWh by 2050, with global share of electricity demand exceeding 4%.
Introl Angle
Deploying data center infrastructure at the scale BNEF projects requires field engineering capacity across multiple simultaneous builds. Introl's 550 HPC-specialized engineers support GPU cluster deployments at 257 global locations. Learn more about our coverage area.
Published: December 29, 2025