Texas Data Center Bubble: 220 GW in Queue, Only 7.5 GW Connected

December 13, 2025

December 2025 Update: ERCOT's large load interconnection queue ballooned to 230 GW in 2025—nearly 4x the 63 GW reported in December 2024. More than 70% of requests are data centers. Only 7.5 GW has actually connected to the grid.

TL;DR

Texas faces an unprecedented gap between data center power requests and reality. The 220+ GW queue exceeds twice the state's record peak demand of 85 GW and its total generation capacity of 103 GW. University of Texas researchers call it a bubble. Senate Bill 6 creates new "kill switch" authority for ERCOT to disconnect large loads during emergencies. Infrastructure planners targeting Texas must understand which projects will actually get built versus speculative placeholders.

The Numbers

ERCOT released December 2025 data showing the scale of the disconnect:¹

The queue represents more than twice Texas's record peak summer demand of 85 GW and exceeds its total available generation capacity of approximately 103 GW.²

Why the Gap Matters

The chasm between requests (230 GW) and connections (7.5 GW) reveals several dynamics:

Speculative positioning: Companies submit interconnection requests to reserve grid access without firm commitments. More than half the projects (128 GW) haven't even submitted studies for ERCOT to review.³

Land grab mentality: With AI infrastructure demand surging, developers secure positions in multiple locations before committing capital. Many requests function as options rather than firm plans.

Timeline mismatch: Large load requests target 2030 connections, but generation and transmission infrastructure takes 5-10 years to build at this scale.

Joshua Rhodes, research scientist at the University of Texas at Austin, described the situation bluntly: "It definitely looks, smells, feels—is acting like a bubble. The top line numbers are almost laughable."⁴

Request Pipeline Status

ERCOT categorizes requests by progress:⁵

The 7.5 GW actually connected represents just 3.3% of total requests. Even the 90 GW under active review faces years of transmission planning, permitting, and construction.

Generation Queue Context

Meeting this demand requires massive generation buildout. ERCOT's generation interconnection queue shows:⁶

Solar and storage account for 77% of queued generation. Gas represents just 11% despite providing reliable baseload power for 24/7 data center operations.

ERCOT estimates meeting projected demand growth requires thousands of miles of new long-distance transmission lines costing more than $30 billion.⁷

Senate Bill 6: The "Kill Switch"

Texas responded to the surge with Senate Bill 6, signed June 21, 2025. The law fundamentally changes large load operations:⁸

Who it affects: Any customer drawing 75 MW or more at a single site, including hyperscale data centers, crypto mines, and manufacturers.⁹

Key provisions:

The "kill switch" provisions apply only during grid emergencies after ERCOT exhausts other options. Critical facilities (where interruption poses danger to life) remain exempt.¹³

Infrastructure Implications

For organizations planning Texas data center deployments:

Reality check on timelines: The 230 GW queue suggests a 5+ year wait for new large load connections. Projects announced today targeting 2027 completion face significant uncertainty.

Site selection criteria shifts:

Behind-the-meter power: SB6's disclosure requirements and curtailment authority make co-located generation more attractive. Data centers with on-site power face less grid dependency risk.

Alternative markets: The Texas bottleneck drives interest in other ERCOT-adjacent markets (Oklahoma, Louisiana) and non-ERCOT Texas regions connected to SPP.

Who Actually Gets Built?

Not all 230 GW of requests will materialize. Projects with higher completion probability share characteristics:¹⁴

Higher probability: - Hyperscaler commitments (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta) with capital and long-term power contracts - Projects with signed PPAs or direct utility agreements - Sites with existing transmission infrastructure - Behind-the-meter generation arrangements

Lower probability: - Speculative requests without development capital - Projects requiring extensive new transmission - Sites dependent on unbuilt generation - Requests functioning as "placeholder" positions

The hyperscalers have announced specific Texas projects: Google in Midlothian, Microsoft expanding in San Antonio, Amazon in multiple locations. These committed projects represent a fraction of total queue volume.¹⁵

Market Dynamics

The queue imbalance creates several market effects:

Land prices: Data center-suitable parcels in transmission-rich areas command premium prices. Speculation extends beyond actual development.

Power costs: Wholesale electricity prices in ERCOT remain competitive, but transmission and interconnection costs increase with queue congestion.

Talent competition: The concentration of announced projects in Dallas-Fort Worth and San Antonio intensifies competition for construction and operations talent.

Political attention: SB6 represents the first major regulatory response. Additional legislation likely as the 2027 session approaches.

Comparison to Other Markets

Texas isn't alone in facing data center power demand, but the scale differs:¹⁶

Texas attracted disproportionate interest due to deregulated power markets, business-friendly policies, and available land. The queue reflects that attractiveness—and its limits.

Key Takeaways

For site selection teams: - 230 GW queue represents mostly speculative requests; only 7.5 GW connected - Projects without existing transmission face 5+ year timelines - SB6 "kill switch" provisions affect facilities connecting after Dec 31, 2025 - Behind-the-meter generation reduces grid dependency and regulatory exposure

For power procurement: - 70%+ of large load requests are data centers—competition for power remains intense - Gas generation represents just 11% of queued generation despite 24/7 demand - $30B+ transmission investment needed; costs will flow to large customers - Consider alternative markets: Oklahoma, Louisiana, SPP-connected Texas regions

For strategic planning: - UT Austin researchers characterize situation as a bubble - Many queue entries function as options/placeholders, not firm commitments - Hyperscaler projects have highest completion probability - Regulatory environment tightening: SB6 is first response, more likely

References

For AI infrastructure deployment in Texas and alternative markets, contact Introl.