Hyperscaler CapEx 2026 में $600B तक पहुंचा: AI Infrastructure Debt Wave
January 1, 2026
January 2026 Update: Big Five hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Oracle) 2026 में infrastructure पर $600 billion से अधिक खर्च करेंगे—2025 की तुलना में 36% की वृद्धि। लगभग 75% ($450B) AI infrastructure को target करता है। इसे fund करने के लिए, hyperscalers ने केवल 2025 में $108B का debt raised किया, आने वाले वर्षों में $1.5T के debt issuance के projections के साथ।
TL;DR
Hyperscaler capex अभूतपूर्व territory में प्रवेश कर गया है: 2026 के लिए $602B projected, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, और Meta प्रत्येक individually $100B से अधिक। Capital intensity अब revenue के 45-57% तक पहुंच गई है—historically अकल्पनीय levels। इस buildout को fund करने के लिए आवश्यक debt financing ($108B in 2025, projected $1.5T total) AI infrastructure के funding के तरीके में fundamental shift का प्रतिनिधित्व करती है। Infrastructure providers के लिए, यह spending wave massive demand creates करती है—लेकिन concentration risk real है।
What Happened
Big Five hyperscalers ने एक AI infrastructure buildout के लिए commitment की है जो सभी previous technology investment cycles को dwarf करती है:1
| Year | CapEx (Big Five) | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $256B | +63% |
| 2025 | $443B | +73% |
| 2026 (projected) | $602B | +36% |
Goldman Sachs projects करता है कि 2025-2027 से total hyperscaler capex $1.15 trillion तक पहुंचेगा—2022-2024 में खर्च किए गए $477B से दोगुने से अधिक।2
Individual Company Commitments
| Company | 2025 CapEx | 2026 Projection | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon | $125B | Higher than 2025 | 61% YoY increase; majority to AWS AI |
| Microsoft | ~$95B | $100B+ | Azure AI infrastructure |
| ~$75B | $100B+ | TPU + GPU expansion | |
| Meta | $66-72B | ~$100B | Doubled from 2024 |
| Oracle | ~$15B | ~$20B | Cloud infrastructure |
चार largest hyperscalers में से प्रत्येक अब annual infrastructure spending में $100B से अधिक करता है।3
Why It Matters
75% of Spend = AI Infrastructure
Hyperscaler capex की composition dramatically shift हुई है:4
| Category | Share of 2026 CapEx | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| AI infrastructure (GPUs, servers, AI DCs) | 75% | ~$450B |
| Traditional cloud | 15% | ~$90B |
| Other (real estate, network) | 10% | ~$60B |
इस concentration का मतलब है कि GPU suppliers (NVIDIA), memory vendors (SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron), और data center infrastructure providers को unprecedented demand का सामना करना पड़ता है।
Capital Intensity at Historic Levels
Hyperscalers अब revenue का 45-57% capex पर spend करते हैं—ratios जो previously technology companies के लिए unthinkable थे:5
| Company | Capital Intensity | Historical Norm |
|---|---|---|
| Amazon (AWS) | 57% | 15-25% |
| Meta | 52% | 20-30% |
| Microsoft | 48% | 10-20% |
| 45% | 15-25% |
यह intensity level traditional tech की बजाय industrial या utility companies के समान है।
The Debt Wave
Capex अब internal cash generation से अधिक है, hyperscalers को debt markets के लिए मजबूर कर रहा है:6
| Metric | 2025 | Historical Average |
|---|---|---|
| Debt raised (Big Five) | $108B | $32B/year |
| Multiple vs average | 3.4x | 1x |
Morgan Stanley और JP Morgan के projections suggest करते हैं कि technology sector को AI infrastructure construction को finance करने के लिए अगले कुछ वर्षों में $1.5 trillion का new debt issue करना पड़ सकता है।7
Technical Details
Where the Money Goes
$450B AI infrastructure spend लगभग इस प्रकार breakdown होता है:8
| Component | Estimated Spend | Key Vendors |
|---|---|---|
| GPUs/Accelerators | $180B | NVIDIA (90%+), AMD |
| Data center construction | $120B | Turner, DPR, Mortenson |
| Networking | $50B | Arista, Cisco, Broadcom |
| Memory (HBM, DDR5) | $40B | SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron |
| Cooling | $25B | Vertiv, Schneider, LG |
| Power infrastructure | $20B | Eaton, ABB, Cummins |
| Other | $15B | Various |
GPU Concentration
NVIDIA AI accelerator spend का लगभग 90% capture करता है:9
- H100/H200: अभी भी deployments की majority
- GB200/GB300: 2026 के माध्यम से ramping
- Blackwell Ultra: 2026-2027 में expected
$180B GPU/accelerator spend लगभग ~$30K average price पर 6 million GPUs का प्रतिनिधित्व करता है।
Data Center Construction
$120B construction spend का अनुवाद:10
- ~15-20 GW नई data center capacity
- 500+ नई facilities globally
- 4-year pipeline को 2 years में compressed
Infrastructure Implications
For Data Center Developers
Hyperscaler buildout opportunity और risk दोनों creates करता है:11
Opportunity: - Construction के लिए unprecedented demand - Long-term lease commitments (10-15 years) - Speed के लिए premium pricing
Risk: - 4-5 customers में concentration - Financing requirements balance sheets को strain करती हैं - इस scale पर execution complexity
For Power/Energy
15-20 GW buildout की आवश्यकता:12
- ~15 nuclear power plants के equivalent
- Multiple utility-scale solar/wind farms
- On-site generation increasingly common
- PPA competition intensifies
For Component Suppliers
$450B AI infrastructure spend supply chains के माध्यम से reverberates करता है:13
| Component | 2025 vs 2024 | Constraint |
|---|---|---|
| HBM3e memory | +150% | Packaging capacity |
| Advanced packaging (CoWoS) | +100% | TSMC capacity |
| Data center power supplies | +80% | Transformer lead times |
| Liquid cooling systems | +200% | Manufacturing scale |
What's Next
2026 Outlook
- Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Meta प्रत्येक के $100B+ capex announce करने की संभावना
- Elevated levels पर debt issuance continue
- Utilization pressure के पहले signs (ROI questions)
Risks to Monitor
- Utilization rates: क्या capacity का use हो रहा है?
- ROI timelines: AI investments कब returns generate करते हैं?
- Debt sustainability: क्या hyperscalers $100B+ debt loads को service कर सकते हैं?
- Supply constraints: क्या vendors इस scale पर deliver कर सकते हैं?
Infrastructure Provider Implications
Hyperscalers को infrastructure supply करने वाले organizations के लिए:14
- अभी contracts secure करें: Demand supply से अधिक है
- Customer base diversify करें: Concentration risk real है
- Capacity build करें: Multi-year visibility expansion को support करती है
- Financing watch करें: Hyperscaler debt loads payment terms को affect करते हैं
Enterprise-scale AI infrastructure deployment के लिए, Introl से संपर्क करें।
References
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IEEE ComSoc Technology Blog. "Hyperscaler capex > $600 bn in 2026 a 36% increase over 2025." December 22, 2025. https://techblog.comsoc.org/2025/12/22/hyperscaler-capex-600-bn-in-2026-a-36-increase-over-2025-while-global-spending-on-cloud-infrastructure-services-skyrockets/ ↩
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Goldman Sachs. "Why AI Companies May Invest More than $500 Billion in 2026." 2025. https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/why-ai-companies-may-invest-more-than-500-billion-in-2026 ↩
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CNBC. "How much Google, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft are spending on AI." October 31, 2025. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/31/tech-ai-google-meta-amazon-microsoft-spend.html ↩
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Purpose Investments. "2026 Technology & AI Outlook." 2025. https://www.purposeinvest.com/thoughtful/2026-technology-ai-outlook-climbing-the-next-tech-wall-of-worry ↩
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Record-Breaking AI-Related Debt Issuance in 2025. Mellon Investments. 2025. ↩
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Fusion Worldwide. "How Hyperscaler Spending Influences Semiconductor Supply Chains." 2025. https://www.fusionww.com/insights/resources/the-cost-of-ai-how-hyperscaler-spending-is-impacting-semiconductor-supply ↩
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IEEE ComSoc. "AI spending boom accelerates: Big tech to invest an aggregate of $400 billion in 2025." November 1, 2025. https://techblog.comsoc.org/2025/11/01/ai-spending-boom-accelerates-big-tech-to-invest-invest-an-aggregate-of-400-billion-in-2025-more-in-2026/ ↩
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IO Fund. "Big Tech's $405B Bet: Why AI Stocks Are Set Up for a Strong 2026." 2025. https://io-fund.com/ai-stocks/ai-platforms/big-techs-405b-bet ↩
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CNBC. "Data center deals hit record $61 billion in 2025." December 19, 2025. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/19/data-center-deals-hit-record-amid-ai-funding-concerns-grip-investors.html ↩
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KKR. "Beyond the Bubble: Why AI Infrastructure Will Compound Long after the Hype." 2025. https://www.kkr.com/insights/ai-infrastructure ↩
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CryptoRank. "Hyperscalers can't slow spending without losing the AI war." 2025. https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/d38b5-looking-ahead-to-2026-why-hyperscalers-cant-slow-spending-without-losing-the-ai-war ↩
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Goldman Sachs. "AI Infrastructure Investment Outlook." 2025. ↩
